Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Sunday 29 March 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
Italy 10023 (+889) 92472 (+5974) 12384 (+1434) 70065 (+3651)
Spain 5982 (+844) 73235 (+7516) 12285 (+2928) 54968 (+3744)
United States 2211 (+604) 123311 (+20973) 3231 (+760) 117869 (+19609)
France 2314 (+319) 37575 (+4611) 5700 (+0) 29561 (+4292)
United Kingdom 1019 (+260) 17089 (+2546) 135 (+0) 15935 (+2286)
Iran 2517 (+139) 35408 (+3076) 11679 (+546) 21212 (+2391)
Netherlands 639 (+93) 9762 (+1159) 3 (+0) 9120 (+1066)
Germany 433 (+82) 57695 (+6824) 8481 (+1823) 48781 (+4919)
Belgium 353 (+64) 9134 (+1850) 1063 (+205) 7718 (+1581)
Switzerland 264 (+33) 14076 (+1148) 1530 (+0) 12282 (+1115)
Portugal 100 (+24) 5170 (+902) 43 (+0) 5027 (+878)
Brazil 114 (+22) 3904 (+487) 6 (+0) 3784 (+465)
Turkey 108 (+16) 7402 (+1704) 70 (+28) 7224 (+1660)
Indonesia 102 (+15) 1155 (+109) 59 (+13) 994 (+81)
Ireland 36 (+14) 2415 (+294) 5 (+0) 2374 (+280)
Philippines 68 (+14) 1075 (+272) 35 (+4) 972 (+254)
Denmark 65 (+13) 2201 (+155) 1 (+0) 2135 (+142)
Romania 37 (+11) 1452 (+160) 139 (+24) 1276 (+125)
Austria 68 (+10) 8271 (+574) 225 (+0) 7978 (+564)
Dominican Republic 28 (+8) 719 (+138) 3 (+0) 688 (+130)
Ecuador 48 (+7) 1823 (+196) 3 (+0) 1772 (+189)
Egypt 36 (+6) 576 (+40) 121 (+5) 419 (+29)
Panama 14 (+5) 786 (+112) 2 (+0) 770 (+107)
Canada 60 (+5) 5655 (+898) 396 (+42) 5199 (+851)
Argentina 18 (+5) 690 (+101) 72 (+0) 600 (+96)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 27544 (+3590) 581143 (+68343) 66497 (+8463)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 33310 ( +4952) 687792 ( +93127) 78770 ( +11842)
Mon 30 March 2020 39127 ( +5817) 795503 ( +107710) 92707 ( +13938)
Tue 31 March 2020 45960 ( +6833) 920081 ( +124578) 109111 ( +16404)
Wed 01 April 2020 53986 ( +8026) 1064169 ( +144088) 128417 ( +19306)
Thu 02 April 2020 63413 ( +9427) 1230821 ( +166652) 151140 ( +22722)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 3295 (+3) 81394 (+54) 74971 (+383)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 3232 ( +1) 80906 ( +0) 73713 ( +158)
Mon 30 March 2020 3233 ( +1) 80906 ( +0) 73851 ( +138)
Tue 31 March 2020 3233 ( +1) 80907 ( +0) 73970 ( +119)
Wed 01 April 2020 3234 ( +0) 80907 ( +0) 74074 ( +104)
Thu 02 April 2020 3234 ( +0) 80907 ( +0) 74164 ( +90)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

If Spain follows Italy's behaviour we should start seeing a flattening of the number of Deaths and cases in the following days, although it is still not clear yet. When that happens the predicted deaths should be reduced with respect to this prediction.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 5982 (+844) 73235 (+7516) 12285 (+2928)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 6734 ( +766) 81809 ( +8238) 15766 ( +3643)
Mon 30 March 2020 7437 ( +703) 89809 ( +8000) 20504 ( +4737)
Tue 31 March 2020 8056 ( +619) 97385 ( +7575) 26665 ( +6161)
Wed 01 April 2020 8582 ( +526) 104389 ( +7004) 34677 ( +8012)
Thu 02 April 2020 9015 ( +433) 110724 ( +6335) 45097 ( +10420)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 10023 (+889) 92472 (+5974) 12384 (+1434)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 10482 ( +649) 95490 ( +4358) 15031 ( +1833)
Mon 30 March 2020 11074 ( +592) 99420 ( +3929) 17118 ( +2087)
Tue 31 March 2020 11606 ( +531) 102920 ( +3500) 19494 ( +2377)
Wed 01 April 2020 12075 ( +469) 106005 ( +3085) 22201 ( +2707)
Thu 02 April 2020 12484 ( +409) 108697 ( +2692) 25284 ( +3083)

United States

I use the combined data for all the states combined

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 2211 (+604) 123311 (+20973) 3231 (+760)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 2877 ( +704) 161162 ( +33333) 5452 ( +2006)
Mon 30 March 2020 3810 ( +933) 203187 ( +42025) 8625 ( +3173)
Tue 31 March 2020 5045 ( +1235) 256171 ( +52984) 13646 ( +5020)
Wed 01 April 2020 6680 ( +1635) 322971 ( +66800) 21588 ( +7943)
Thu 02 April 2020 8846 ( +2166) 407190 ( +84219) 34154 ( +12566)

France

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 2314 (+319) 37575 (+4611) 5700 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 2644 ( +323) 41092 ( +4017) 8680 ( +1899)
Mon 30 March 2020 2946 ( +302) 45121 ( +4029) 11110 ( +2430)
Tue 31 March 2020 3217 ( +271) 49088 ( +3967) 14221 ( +3111)
Wed 01 April 2020 3452 ( +234) 52922 ( +3834) 18202 ( +3981)
Thu 02 April 2020 3647 ( +196) 56562 ( +3641) 23298 ( +5096)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 2517 (+139) 35408 (+3076) 11679 (+546)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 2540 ( +86) 34182 ( +1410) 14036 ( +1255)
Mon 30 March 2020 2615 ( +75) 35515 ( +1333) 15414 ( +1378)
Tue 31 March 2020 2679 ( +64) 36766 ( +1251) 16928 ( +1513)
Wed 01 April 2020 2734 ( +55) 37931 ( +1165) 18589 ( +1662)
Thu 02 April 2020 2781 ( +46) 39010 ( +1078) 20414 ( +1825)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 433 (+82) 57695 (+6824) 8481 (+1823)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 547 ( +111) 62199 ( +5719) 12846 ( +3743)
Mon 30 March 2020 678 ( +132) 67685 ( +5486) 18127 ( +5281)
Tue 31 March 2020 830 ( +152) 72827 ( +5142) 25580 ( +7452)
Wed 01 April 2020 1001 ( +171) 77542 ( +4715) 36096 ( +10516)
Thu 02 April 2020 1186 ( +185) 81781 ( +4238) 50935 ( +14839)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 1019 (+260) 17089 (+2546) 135 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 1245 ( +257) 20997 ( +3684) 184 ( +20)
Mon 30 March 2020 1568 ( +323) 25464 ( +4468) 207 ( +22)
Tue 31 March 2020 1976 ( +407) 30883 ( +5418) 232 ( +25)
Wed 01 April 2020 2489 ( +513) 37454 ( +6571) 260 ( +28)
Thu 02 April 2020 3136 ( +647) 45423 ( +7969) 292 ( +32)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 105 (+0) 3447 (+378) 16 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 129 ( +17) 3472 ( +202) 16 ( +0)
Mon 30 March 2020 144 ( +15) 3664 ( +192) 16 ( +0)
Tue 31 March 2020 157 ( +12) 3844 ( +180) 16 ( +0)
Wed 01 April 2020 166 ( +10) 4012 ( +168) 16 ( +0)
Thu 02 April 2020 174 ( +7) 4166 ( +154) 16 ( +0)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 639 (+93) 9762 (+1159) 3 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 838 ( +171) 11863 ( +1740) 2 ( +0)
Mon 30 March 2020 1053 ( +215) 13902 ( +2039) 2 ( +0)
Tue 31 March 2020 1324 ( +270) 16292 ( +2390) 2 ( +0)
Wed 01 April 2020 1663 ( +340) 19093 ( +2801) 2 ( +0)
Thu 02 April 2020 2090 ( +427) 22376 ( +3282) 2 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 18 (+2) 1638 (+249) 7 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 21 ( +2) 1787 ( +182) nan ( +nan)
Mon 30 March 2020 23 ( +2) 1961 ( +174) nan ( +nan)
Tue 31 March 2020 26 ( +2) 2123 ( +162) nan ( +nan)
Wed 01 April 2020 28 ( +2) 2270 ( +147) nan ( +nan)
Thu 02 April 2020 30 ( +2) 2399 ( +130) nan ( +nan)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 264 (+33) 14076 (+1148) 1530 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 299 ( +36) 14669 ( +757) 3050 ( +1348)
Mon 30 March 2020 334 ( +35) 15305 ( +636) 5464 ( +2415)
Tue 31 March 2020 367 ( +33) 15830 ( +525) 9792 ( +4327)
Wed 01 April 2020 398 ( +30) 16256 ( +426) 17545 ( +7754)
Thu 02 April 2020 424 ( +27) 16597 ( +341) 31439 ( +13894)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 28 March 2020 353 (+64) 9134 (+1850) 1063 (+205)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 480 ( +113) 10683 ( +1745) 1423 ( +318)
Mon 30 March 2020 628 ( +149) 12769 ( +2086) 1832 ( +409)
Tue 31 March 2020 823 ( +195) 15262 ( +2493) 2359 ( +527)
Wed 01 April 2020 1078 ( +255) 18243 ( +2980) 3037 ( +678)
Thu 02 April 2020 1412 ( +334) 21805 ( +3562) 3909 ( +873)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.