Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions¶
Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.
Table of contents¶
Updated on Sunday 29 March 2020¶
Author: Javier Moldon
More info in https://github.com/jmoldon/coronavirus_analysis
link to this report: https://jmoldon.github.io/coronavirus_analysis/cvid_report.html
"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard
General statistics¶
List of most affected countries¶
Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day
| Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered | Active | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country/Region | ||||
| Italy | 10023 (+889) | 92472 (+5974) | 12384 (+1434) | 70065 (+3651) |
| Spain | 5982 (+844) | 73235 (+7516) | 12285 (+2928) | 54968 (+3744) |
| United States | 2211 (+604) | 123311 (+20973) | 3231 (+760) | 117869 (+19609) |
| France | 2314 (+319) | 37575 (+4611) | 5700 (+0) | 29561 (+4292) |
| United Kingdom | 1019 (+260) | 17089 (+2546) | 135 (+0) | 15935 (+2286) |
| Iran | 2517 (+139) | 35408 (+3076) | 11679 (+546) | 21212 (+2391) |
| Netherlands | 639 (+93) | 9762 (+1159) | 3 (+0) | 9120 (+1066) |
| Germany | 433 (+82) | 57695 (+6824) | 8481 (+1823) | 48781 (+4919) |
| Belgium | 353 (+64) | 9134 (+1850) | 1063 (+205) | 7718 (+1581) |
| Switzerland | 264 (+33) | 14076 (+1148) | 1530 (+0) | 12282 (+1115) |
| Portugal | 100 (+24) | 5170 (+902) | 43 (+0) | 5027 (+878) |
| Brazil | 114 (+22) | 3904 (+487) | 6 (+0) | 3784 (+465) |
| Turkey | 108 (+16) | 7402 (+1704) | 70 (+28) | 7224 (+1660) |
| Indonesia | 102 (+15) | 1155 (+109) | 59 (+13) | 994 (+81) |
| Ireland | 36 (+14) | 2415 (+294) | 5 (+0) | 2374 (+280) |
| Philippines | 68 (+14) | 1075 (+272) | 35 (+4) | 972 (+254) |
| Denmark | 65 (+13) | 2201 (+155) | 1 (+0) | 2135 (+142) |
| Romania | 37 (+11) | 1452 (+160) | 139 (+24) | 1276 (+125) |
| Austria | 68 (+10) | 8271 (+574) | 225 (+0) | 7978 (+564) |
| Dominican Republic | 28 (+8) | 719 (+138) | 3 (+0) | 688 (+130) |
| Ecuador | 48 (+7) | 1823 (+196) | 3 (+0) | 1772 (+189) |
| Egypt | 36 (+6) | 576 (+40) | 121 (+5) | 419 (+29) |
| Panama | 14 (+5) | 786 (+112) | 2 (+0) | 770 (+107) |
| Canada | 60 (+5) | 5655 (+898) | 396 (+42) | 5199 (+851) |
| Argentina | 18 (+5) | 690 (+101) | 72 (+0) | 600 (+96) |
Global situation¶
These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.
Deaths¶
Confirmed Cases¶
World (except China)¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 28 March 2020 | 27544 (+3590) | 581143 (+68343) | 66497 (+8463) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 29 March 2020 | 33310 ( +4952) | 687792 ( +93127) | 78770 ( +11842) |
| Mon 30 March 2020 | 39127 ( +5817) | 795503 ( +107710) | 92707 ( +13938) |
| Tue 31 March 2020 | 45960 ( +6833) | 920081 ( +124578) | 109111 ( +16404) |
| Wed 01 April 2020 | 53986 ( +8026) | 1064169 ( +144088) | 128417 ( +19306) |
| Thu 02 April 2020 | 63413 ( +9427) | 1230821 ( +166652) | 151140 ( +22722) |
China¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 28 March 2020 | 3295 (+3) | 81394 (+54) | 74971 (+383) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 29 March 2020 | 3232 ( +1) | 80906 ( +0) | 73713 ( +158) |
| Mon 30 March 2020 | 3233 ( +1) | 80906 ( +0) | 73851 ( +138) |
| Tue 31 March 2020 | 3233 ( +1) | 80907 ( +0) | 73970 ( +119) |
| Wed 01 April 2020 | 3234 ( +0) | 80907 ( +0) | 74074 ( +104) |
| Thu 02 April 2020 | 3234 ( +0) | 80907 ( +0) | 74164 ( +90) |
Evolution of cases¶
All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.
Spain¶
If Spain follows Italy's behaviour we should start seeing a flattening of the number of Deaths and cases in the following days, although it is still not clear yet. When that happens the predicted deaths should be reduced with respect to this prediction.
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 28 March 2020 | 5982 (+844) | 73235 (+7516) | 12285 (+2928) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 29 March 2020 | 6734 ( +766) | 81809 ( +8238) | 15766 ( +3643) |
| Mon 30 March 2020 | 7437 ( +703) | 89809 ( +8000) | 20504 ( +4737) |
| Tue 31 March 2020 | 8056 ( +619) | 97385 ( +7575) | 26665 ( +6161) |
| Wed 01 April 2020 | 8582 ( +526) | 104389 ( +7004) | 34677 ( +8012) |
| Thu 02 April 2020 | 9015 ( +433) | 110724 ( +6335) | 45097 ( +10420) |
Italy¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 28 March 2020 | 10023 (+889) | 92472 (+5974) | 12384 (+1434) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 29 March 2020 | 10482 ( +649) | 95490 ( +4358) | 15031 ( +1833) |
| Mon 30 March 2020 | 11074 ( +592) | 99420 ( +3929) | 17118 ( +2087) |
| Tue 31 March 2020 | 11606 ( +531) | 102920 ( +3500) | 19494 ( +2377) |
| Wed 01 April 2020 | 12075 ( +469) | 106005 ( +3085) | 22201 ( +2707) |
| Thu 02 April 2020 | 12484 ( +409) | 108697 ( +2692) | 25284 ( +3083) |
United States¶
I use the combined data for all the states combined
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 28 March 2020 | 2211 (+604) | 123311 (+20973) | 3231 (+760) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 29 March 2020 | 2877 ( +704) | 161162 ( +33333) | 5452 ( +2006) |
| Mon 30 March 2020 | 3810 ( +933) | 203187 ( +42025) | 8625 ( +3173) |
| Tue 31 March 2020 | 5045 ( +1235) | 256171 ( +52984) | 13646 ( +5020) |
| Wed 01 April 2020 | 6680 ( +1635) | 322971 ( +66800) | 21588 ( +7943) |
| Thu 02 April 2020 | 8846 ( +2166) | 407190 ( +84219) | 34154 ( +12566) |
France¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 28 March 2020 | 2314 (+319) | 37575 (+4611) | 5700 (+0) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 29 March 2020 | 2644 ( +323) | 41092 ( +4017) | 8680 ( +1899) |
| Mon 30 March 2020 | 2946 ( +302) | 45121 ( +4029) | 11110 ( +2430) |
| Tue 31 March 2020 | 3217 ( +271) | 49088 ( +3967) | 14221 ( +3111) |
| Wed 01 April 2020 | 3452 ( +234) | 52922 ( +3834) | 18202 ( +3981) |
| Thu 02 April 2020 | 3647 ( +196) | 56562 ( +3641) | 23298 ( +5096) |
Iran¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 28 March 2020 | 2517 (+139) | 35408 (+3076) | 11679 (+546) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 29 March 2020 | 2540 ( +86) | 34182 ( +1410) | 14036 ( +1255) |
| Mon 30 March 2020 | 2615 ( +75) | 35515 ( +1333) | 15414 ( +1378) |
| Tue 31 March 2020 | 2679 ( +64) | 36766 ( +1251) | 16928 ( +1513) |
| Wed 01 April 2020 | 2734 ( +55) | 37931 ( +1165) | 18589 ( +1662) |
| Thu 02 April 2020 | 2781 ( +46) | 39010 ( +1078) | 20414 ( +1825) |
Germany¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 28 March 2020 | 433 (+82) | 57695 (+6824) | 8481 (+1823) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 29 March 2020 | 547 ( +111) | 62199 ( +5719) | 12846 ( +3743) |
| Mon 30 March 2020 | 678 ( +132) | 67685 ( +5486) | 18127 ( +5281) |
| Tue 31 March 2020 | 830 ( +152) | 72827 ( +5142) | 25580 ( +7452) |
| Wed 01 April 2020 | 1001 ( +171) | 77542 ( +4715) | 36096 ( +10516) |
| Thu 02 April 2020 | 1186 ( +185) | 81781 ( +4238) | 50935 ( +14839) |
United Kingdom¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 28 March 2020 | 1019 (+260) | 17089 (+2546) | 135 (+0) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 29 March 2020 | 1245 ( +257) | 20997 ( +3684) | 184 ( +20) |
| Mon 30 March 2020 | 1568 ( +323) | 25464 ( +4468) | 207 ( +22) |
| Tue 31 March 2020 | 1976 ( +407) | 30883 ( +5418) | 232 ( +25) |
| Wed 01 April 2020 | 2489 ( +513) | 37454 ( +6571) | 260 ( +28) |
| Thu 02 April 2020 | 3136 ( +647) | 45423 ( +7969) | 292 ( +32) |
Sweden¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 28 March 2020 | 105 (+0) | 3447 (+378) | 16 (+0) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 29 March 2020 | 129 ( +17) | 3472 ( +202) | 16 ( +0) |
| Mon 30 March 2020 | 144 ( +15) | 3664 ( +192) | 16 ( +0) |
| Tue 31 March 2020 | 157 ( +12) | 3844 ( +180) | 16 ( +0) |
| Wed 01 April 2020 | 166 ( +10) | 4012 ( +168) | 16 ( +0) |
| Thu 02 April 2020 | 174 ( +7) | 4166 ( +154) | 16 ( +0) |
Netherlands¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 28 March 2020 | 639 (+93) | 9762 (+1159) | 3 (+0) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 29 March 2020 | 838 ( +171) | 11863 ( +1740) | 2 ( +0) |
| Mon 30 March 2020 | 1053 ( +215) | 13902 ( +2039) | 2 ( +0) |
| Tue 31 March 2020 | 1324 ( +270) | 16292 ( +2390) | 2 ( +0) |
| Wed 01 April 2020 | 1663 ( +340) | 19093 ( +2801) | 2 ( +0) |
| Thu 02 April 2020 | 2090 ( +427) | 22376 ( +3282) | 2 ( +0) |
Poland¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 28 March 2020 | 18 (+2) | 1638 (+249) | 7 (+0) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 29 March 2020 | 21 ( +2) | 1787 ( +182) | nan ( +nan) |
| Mon 30 March 2020 | 23 ( +2) | 1961 ( +174) | nan ( +nan) |
| Tue 31 March 2020 | 26 ( +2) | 2123 ( +162) | nan ( +nan) |
| Wed 01 April 2020 | 28 ( +2) | 2270 ( +147) | nan ( +nan) |
| Thu 02 April 2020 | 30 ( +2) | 2399 ( +130) | nan ( +nan) |
Switzerland¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 28 March 2020 | 264 (+33) | 14076 (+1148) | 1530 (+0) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 29 March 2020 | 299 ( +36) | 14669 ( +757) | 3050 ( +1348) |
| Mon 30 March 2020 | 334 ( +35) | 15305 ( +636) | 5464 ( +2415) |
| Tue 31 March 2020 | 367 ( +33) | 15830 ( +525) | 9792 ( +4327) |
| Wed 01 April 2020 | 398 ( +30) | 16256 ( +426) | 17545 ( +7754) |
| Thu 02 April 2020 | 424 ( +27) | 16597 ( +341) | 31439 ( +13894) |
Belgium¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 28 March 2020 | 353 (+64) | 9134 (+1850) | 1063 (+205) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 29 March 2020 | 480 ( +113) | 10683 ( +1745) | 1423 ( +318) |
| Mon 30 March 2020 | 628 ( +149) | 12769 ( +2086) | 1832 ( +409) |
| Tue 31 March 2020 | 823 ( +195) | 15262 ( +2493) | 2359 ( +527) |
| Wed 01 April 2020 | 1078 ( +255) | 18243 ( +2980) | 3037 ( +678) |
| Thu 02 April 2020 | 1412 ( +334) | 21805 ( +3562) | 3909 ( +873) |
Comparison of different countries¶
Early onset: China regions¶
Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.
Other countries¶
South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.
